How much to offer on bank-owned property

What emerges is the picture of a consumer, still flush with pandemic money and rising incomes.

Foreclosed homes for $5,000

Consumer bankruptcies had plunged when the free money arrived, including the PPP loans, along with the various forbearance programs and the eviction bans. And the number of consumers with bankruptcies continued to drop to historic lows and have been hobbling along those historic lows for the last year-and-a-half. Foreclosures dipped in the third quarter and have been at ultra-historic lows since the mortgage forbearance programs, where delinquent mortgages were put on ice, and no longer counted as delinquent.

Most of the borrowers have now exited the forbearance programs, either by having the mortgage modified in some way, or by having sold the home and paid off the mortgage, which was easily possible amid the pandemic spike of home prices. The free pandemic money also helped.

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Foreclosures, after ticking up for two quarters, ticked down again in Q3 to just 28, mortgages with foreclosures, thereby nixing the beginnings of a trend that had been forming. During the Good Times before the pandemic, there were about 70, mortgages with foreclosures, more than double the current number:. The portion of Consumers with third-party collections dropped to a new historic low in Q3, to just 5.

The day-plus delinquency rate of mortgages ticked up to 2. During the Good Times before Housing Bust 1, in , the delinquency rate was 4. During the Good Times before the pandemic, the delinquency rate was around 3. This is right in line with the Good Times:. Mortgage balances have exploded because of the exploding home prices in recent years, even has home sales have plunged in I expect that HELOC balances will gradually rise going forward because pulling cash out of home equity via a cash-out refi is very expensive now as the whole mortgage would come with current mortgage rates, not just the extra cash-out portion.